Corona News Roundup

I spent my sequester time looking for smart people with fresh takes on the crisis.  First, in the “obvious” category: a lot of people got hurt, and dealers who could sell online got hurt a little less.  By the way, if you’re in need of some encouragement, click on over to Megadealer News and check out some of the philanthropic efforts underway.  I have been actively seeking positive news for my Twitter feed.

I like to frame this in terms of people developing new capabilities. 

Going forward, buyer behavior is going to change.  Some of this is an acceleration of existing trends.  Balaji Srinivasan writes that corona is putting an end to the Twentieth Century:

  • Offices → Remote work
  • Stadium sports → eSports
  • Movie theaters → Streaming
  • TV news → YouTube news
  • College → MOOCs
  • Public school → Internet homeschooling
  • Corporate journalism → Citizen journalism

He might have added socializing by video conference.  We had our kids staying with us, doing remote work by day, and Zoom parties in the evening.  I like to frame this in terms of people developing new capabilities.  Here is Andrew Tai talking about people in his neighborhood having groceries delivered for the first time.

I got to know Max Zanan from watching Joe St. John’s webcasts, talking about touchless car delivery and service pickup.  In a pandemic world, we are not just worried about dirt on the floormats.  Interior prophylaxis is part of the service.  Max also points out that, if you can’t sell service contracts in the dealership, you can still sell them Direct to Consumer.  This is something I know a little about, so maybe I’ll do another post just on that.

Ridership on New York’s transit system is down 90%, and experts say this could portend a permanent change in the mobility equation.  The alternative to a personal vehicle used to be public transit or, in drivable cities like Atlanta, ride hailing.  Both are good ways to get sick.

Guns, ammo, and survival gear sold out rapidly, as if everyone is suddenly a “prepper.”  I imagine these people will want to have their own vehicle, with four-wheel drive.  I can relate, because I lived in South Florida for many years.  You don’t want to be waiting on Uber when there’s a hurricane bearing down.

My last few findings are from the world of computer networking.  Infrastructure becomes a challenge when the dealership shifts to online work, notably network security.  Virus scanning and security procedures may not be up to speed when people are working from home.  Also, not all dealer software is web-based, so VPN access becomes a requirement.

Be safe out there.

Digitally Disrupting Dealer Systems

I hesitated to use the D word here.  So much of digital is normal, healthy evolution, that saying “disruption” is like crying wolf.  So, I will digress briefly into that discussion before presenting my thesis, which is: traditional dealer-system providers are about to be whipsawed bigly by digital retail.

According to Gartner, digital disruption is “an effect that changes the fundamental expectations and behaviors … through digital capabilities.”  This idea of changing expectations is echoed by Aaron Levie, to the effect that businesses “evolve based on assumptions that eventually become outdated.”

If your UI even vaguely resembles an airline cockpit, you’re doing it wrong – John Gruber

Another common theme in studies of digital disruption is that people will come from outside the industry, bringing new attitudes and techniques that incumbents can’t match – something I like to call “advanced alien technology.”

Modal’s Aaron Krane came from online sports betting, and famously wondered why there is no “buy now” button on the Mercedes-Benz web site.  Andy Moss of Roadster came from online fashion retail.  I think I am on solid ground arguing that DR pioneers bring something fundamentally different.

In fact, I can identify the baseline assumption which is now outdated.  In olden times, the user of auto retail software was an auto retail employee.  These were experts, executing an esoteric process, and they could be trained to deal with crappy user experience and disjointed workflow.

Today’s user is, of course, the car buyer.  A few years ago, I wrote that each of the six canonical tasks in DR would need a “buddy” on the dealer side, with which to share information.  For example, the website may disclose prices for protection products, and it would be nice to pull retail markup from the menu system.

It’s hard to believe how quickly DR has evolved.  Roadster had just launched Express Storefront when I wrote that article, and already the buddy system is dead.  If a car buyer can desk her own deal, at home in her pajamas, why use a different system in the dealership?

The advantages to using the same system in store and at home include trust, transparency, cost savings, and reduced demands on the salespeople.  The new generation of in-store DR means that salespeople can be experts in customer service (and cars) instead of complicated software.

This marks the culmination of important trends in auto retail, from “one experience” at Sonic to “single point of contact” at Schomp, and it should serve as a wakeup call to old-school software vendors. Digital retail will drive a gradual shift in dealer process, but a rapid one in software.

Digital Retail Taxonomy

The tech buzz at NADA this year was Digital Retail.  Tagrail has a new partnership, with dealer site provider Fox, and Moto showcased some of their OEM projects.  Roadster has an aggregation marketplace, which I’ll get to in a minute, and Modal (Drive) was conspicuously absent.  I hope they’re okay.

All dealer site providers are now claiming the hip acronym DR, including some that are way off the mark.  This week I want to cut through the clutter and taxonomize a bit.  We’ll see how well my predictions from five years ago have held up.

Dealers will migrate onto the most capable of the platform sites, and … the winning platforms will not be mere lead providers.

I am going to skip the consolidators and the used-car sites, to focus on DR solutions for franchised new car dealers.  That was the context for the earlier article (and the pull quote).  The grid above divides the DR space into four segments: True DR, Pivoters, TPC, and Marketplaces.

True Digital Retail

A true DR solution must handle the six canonical functions, do the paperwork online, and save the deal (not a lead) for use in the dealership.  True, not many customers will do the full process online, but you have to offer the capability.  Qualifying questions here are along the lines of “can you sell a service contract and book it online with the administrator?”

I don’t want to be pilloried for omitting someone, but my short list (when asked) goes: Roadster, Moto, Modal, Tagrail, AutoFi, and CarNow.  I can find CarNow dealers pretty easily online, paired with a variety of site providers.  Here in Atlanta, Ed Voyles is an example.

Pivoters

Anybody with a foothold in the dealer’s website is using it to pivot into DR.  The first group of pivoters are what I call “finance first” sites.  AutoGravity, DriveTime, and AutoFi are sites customers use to check their buying power before going into the dealership.  Based on intel from Ricart Ford, I would say that AutoFi has successfully pivoted into the DR segment.

Gubagoo is using their foothold in chat to pivot as “conversational commerce.”  SpinCar is adding protection products to their VDP real estate, which is right where they belong.  Even popular F&I menu Darwin is moving online with Darwin Direct.

Third Party Classifieds

My model for a marketplace is Autotrader plus its DR feature, Accelerate.  However, the other incumbents have not followed suit.  In fact, Cars.com “does not sell vehicles directly and is never a party to any transaction between buyers and sellers.”  This space is inhabited only by brave new entrants like Joydrive, GoGoCar, and Deliver My Ride.

As I wrote here, this model has plenty of challenges, like finding UX and services that will appeal to all dealers – not to mention the customers.  Dealers may prefer a simple clickthrough to their own DR solution.  This is the backdrop for Roadster’s Express Marketplace.

Roadster Marketplace

Roadster’s marketplace operates just like a TPC site.  It has the familiar VSP/VDP with faceted search, but then it segues into a full digital storefront.  The reference site I looked at, Cochran group in suburban Pittsburgh, lists 3,500 new vehicles in 18 makes, from 26 rooftops – with transparent pricing!

My first reaction, I have to say, was “Holy crap, they’ve actually done it!”  They have made their own private Autotrader.  Of course, the same market area lists ten times as many new cars on Autotrader but – funny thing – they all use Accelerate.  Competition is wonderful that way.

The arrows on my grid suggest some strategic directions:

  • Single-function solutions will pivot to become storefronts. AutoFi is an example.
  • Third-party sites will add DR functionality. Accelerate is an example.
  • As storefronts grow to serve dealer groups, they will tend toward marketplaces.

I guess the only remaining frontier would be for two unaffiliated groups to cooperate on a single platform, as I wrote in Toward a Digital Auto Marketplace, maybe in contiguous nonoverlapping markets.  The eCommerce term is “coopetition.”  Or, maybe Accelerate will gain some traction.

Schrödinger’s Combo Product

NADA has recently published a model policy for properly selling F&I products, i.e., without running afoul of the Attorney General.  It includes the disclosure formerly known as the AutoNation Pledge, and a new procedure which seems to be taking the place of the old-school waiver form.  I say “seems” because there is no mention of the old form, which I believe has something to do with nuclear physicist Erwin Schrödinger.

Prior to the sale of a VPP, the Dealership will request the customer’s acknowledgement of the election to purchase or decline each selected VPP or VPP bundle.

As everyone knows, subatomic particles exist in an indeterminate state until they are pinned down by measurement.  For example, if you have a radioactive isotope of Cesium, you can’t tell whether it has decayed until you aim your Geiger counter at it.  Not only can you not tell what state the atom is in, it is not definitely in any state until you measure it.

To show how this contrasts with traditional physics, Schrödinger proposed the following thought experiment.  Imagine there is a cat in a box with the Cesium rigged to kill the cat when it decays.  According to the Uncertainty Principle, the cat is both alive and dead at the same time.

Similarly, the F&I waiver requires each product to be either accepted or declined.  You bought the dent protection, so it prints in the green column, but you turned down roadside assistance.  It prints in the red column.  To save a few dollars, you are willing to leave your family stranded.  Please sign here to confirm.

But what if dent and roadside – and key and windshield – are part of the same bundle?  You only bought one of the components, so it would be misleading to print it in the green column.  On the other hand, you are not going to confirm declining the bundle, because you did buy part of it.  So, in which column does this product belong?

Here are some ideas:

  • The menu system should account for the child products and print them individually on the waiver. It should also count them separately as product sales.
  • The menu system should print the coverage description, and the coverage description should state which components were accepted.
  • Providers should offer bundles all or nothing, and not allow them to be split up.

Unlike Schrödinger, you will not win the Nobel Prize for solving this one – but you can provide some guidance to your fellow F&I practitioners.  Click the link below to register your answer.